Fewer trucks, dearer trucks

Last month's note, The tide, said the market was turning at both ends at once: scarce trucks and dear fuel pulling prices up, dearer money and a coming wave of trade-ins pulling them down. The data released since then says which end won in August and September. Scarcity did. It also says how long that is likely to last.

The used market in August

ACT Research's count of same-dealer used class 8 retail sales fell 24 percent from July to August, against the usual seasonal rise. The average retail sale price rose 2.2 percent to 64,367 dollars and stood 11 percent above August 2025, on volumes 12 percent higher than a year earlier. ACT's Steve Tam called the drop "not necessarily a reflection of weaker demand, but more likely a result of tightening inventory," and said plainly that "used truck inventory is increasingly hard to come by." Fewer trades are reaching the used market because new-truck sales are running below last year's pace.

One caution about the level. ACT's July release put the average at 60,986 dollars, and 2.2 percent above that is about 62,300, not 64,367. Both figures are as ACT published them, and we have seen no note reconciling the two. Treat the direction as reliable and the dollar level as approximate.

Sandhills Global's August report fills in the supply side. Heavy-duty inventory fell 6.16 percent on the month and 37.7 percent on the year, and sleeper inventory was down 42.3 percent on the year, "trending down for nine consecutive months." Asking values for heavy-duty trucks rose 2.99 percent on the month but were still 2.2 percent below a year ago, while auction values rose 4.91 percent on the month and 3.03 percent on the year, with sleepers up 5.7 percent on the month. J.D. Power's September edition saw "heightened auction and wholesale activity" and said "year-over-year pricing remains strong."

Notice that two careful sources disagree on the year. Sandhills has asking prices 2.2 percent below last August; ACT has sale prices 11 percent above it. Neither is wrong. One measures what dealers ask, the other what trucks fetched, on different samples, and the gap between asking and selling is itself a market reading. A valuation that leans on asking prices has to measure that gap month by month rather than assume it.

The four forces, as of 2 October

Scarce is not the same as strong

The American Trucking Associations' Bob Costello put the whole picture in one sentence with the August tonnage figures: "The truck market has certainly flipped this year, but recent tonnage levels confirm this is due to reduced capacity, not robust demand." Cass reached the same place from the other side: class 8 tractor sales "rose above replacement levels in July and August, allowing the fleet to expand for the first time after tightening for the past 18 months," and the firm expects September shipments only about 1 percent above a year ago. Prices are up because trades are down, and trades are down because the new trucks have not arrived yet.

They are arriving. J.D. Power's September edition: "Trades should increase in Q4 as backloaded new truck deliveries increase." The trucks coming back will be the three-to-five-year-old sleepers the pre-buy fleets are replacing, the segment whose inventory is down 42 percent today. Add dearer money, a federal funds rate the Fed itself expects to be higher at year end, and the New York Fed's John Williams saying "one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year," and the direction for late-model sleeper prices over the winter is down from here, even if the level today is firm.

Sixteen trucking companies went to bankruptcy court between late August and 21 September, with diesel the named cause. What their trucks do to local prices is the subject of When a carrier fails.

A scarce market is not a strong market. Prices are up because trades are down, and trades are down because the new trucks have not arrived yet.